À propos de Thomas
Anglais
Capacité professionnelle complète
Chinois
Capacité professionnelle limitée
Français
Bilingue ou natif
Expériences
- Hedge fundVolatility Forecasting with GARCH family modelBANQUE & ASSURANCESseptembre 2017 - novembre 2017 (3 mois)Paris, France• Use GARCH model to convert the market index FCHI (CAC 40) into a robust volatility forecast• Estimating a GARCH model on data displaying a structural break yields a non-stationary estimated model and implies poor prediction => Markov-Switching GARCH model. These models can quickly adapt to variation in the unconditional volatility level.• MSGARCH models are estimated with the Maximum Likelihood technique and an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure.• Each GARCH model is estimated over 3 separate conditionals distributions, which are the Student-t distribution, skewed version of the Normal and Student-t distribution
- Entertainment companyFreelanceDIVERTISSEMENTS & LOISIRSfévrier 2018 - Aujourd'hui (8 ans et 4 mois)Shanghai, Chine• Design a model to forecast the demand for the launch of a new product: theme park• Build a customized Bass Model to forecast new producto Model the customer behavior through similar producto Develop a sentiment analysis to evaluate the behaviors of the imitators' customerso Use the Bayesian technique to forecast demand in an environment with little or no data
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Formations
- PhD in international tradeParis 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne2018Field of studies: Econometrics, Foreign Direct Investment, Export and Quality Topic: “Economic Complexity and Location of Foreign Firms in China” - Update knowledge about the topic: literature review - Data collection - Summary statistic & clean up data (R language) - Build up metrics for analysis - Design a model to extract important features (Conditional logit regressor) - Write the report with Markdown Rewards: Program CaiYuanpei |2015 – 2017| - Paris 1- Fudan partnership for outstanding researchers - Promoting upgrading and Development: The Role of Governmental Interventions in China - Export Taxes and Sustainable Development Topic: “Economic Openness, Industrial Policies and Quality Upgrading: Evidence from China” - Scrap data from the internet (Python + Selenium) - Code Pipeline to prepare the data (Scikit Learn) - Design an original strategy to estimate to model (Diff-in-Diff) - Evaluate the model with High Dimension fixed effects estimator Rewards: New Structural Economics at Peking University, Professor Justin Yifu |2016-2017| - Rewarded from the NSE Special Research Funding & The Chinese Economists Society - Rewarded by Young Academic Talents Award (YATA)